Chance to Win Calculator
How the “Chance to Win” Calculator Works
The Chance to Win calculator gives you a realistic estimate of your chances of walking away with winnings—or at least breaking even—after completing a casino bonus’s wagering requirements. Instead of relying on guesswork, you get a probability-based assessment using key factors like your deposit, bonus, free spins, wagering terms, RTP and game volatility.
To calculate the probability of winning, the casino bonus must have a wagering requirement. A bonus with a 0x wagering requirement cannot be considered in the calculations!
Understanding the Key Inputs
- Deposit Amount ($) – The amount you deposit into your casino account.
- Deposit Bonus (%) – The percentage bonus you receive on your deposit. For instance, if you deposit $10 with a 150% bonus, you’ll get $15 in bonus funds, bringing your total balance to $25.
- Free Spins – The number of free spins included in the bonus offer.
The calculator assumes a $1 bet per spin when estimating the bonus value from free spins. - Wagering Requirement – The playthrough requirement that determines how many times the bonus must be wagered before cashing out.
- RTP (%) – The Return to Player percentage of the selected casino game.
If the casino doesn’t disclose official RTP figures, the calculator defaults to an industry-standard 96%. - Bonus Amount – The total value of your bonus, which includes both the deposit match bonus and any winnings from free spins.
The free spins portion is estimated as:
Number of spins × $1 per spin × RTP. - Total Play Amount – The total amount you start wagering with:
Deposit Amount + Bonus Amount. - Wagering Amount – The total betting volume required to clear the bonus conditions.
Wagering Amount = Bonus Amount × Wagering Requirement.
How the Calculator Handles Welcome Packages
Many casinos offer multi-deposit welcome bonuses spread across several deposits. To provide a more accurate probability estimate, the calculator uses the average deposit match percentage across all deposits in the package.
For example, if a casino’s welcome offer includes:
1st Deposit – 125% up to $1,250
2nd Deposit – 100% up to $1,000
3rd Deposit – 75% up to $1,000
The calculator applies the average bonus percentage:
(125% + 100% + 75%) ÷ 3 = 100%
